Hoping for a Housing Crash? The Experts Just Weighed In

Hoping for a Housing Crash? The Experts Just Weighed In

Some buyers are quietly bracing for a housing crash. Others are quietly hoping for one. A recent Clever survey found that 58% of Gen Z buyers are rooting for lower prices, simply so homeownership feels within reach.

So what do the forecasts actually say? Every quarter, Fannie Mae surveys more than 100 housing experts on where prices are headed. The newest results are in. They are not calling for a crash. Not even the pessimists.

What the Latest Numbers Say

The panel's forecast has prices rising every year through at least 2030. On average, the experts expect prices to climb 14.7% over the next five years. Divide the panel into optimists and pessimists, and even the cautious voices anticipate roughly 6.6% growth by the end of 2030. The takeaway is a quiet one. If you have been waiting for prices to fall, the wait may be a long one. These are national figures, of course. Along the coast, every neighborhood moves to its own rhythm. Corona del Mar is not Dana Point, and Laguna Beach is not Newport Beach. Local knowledge matters.But the broader pattern holds. Historically, prices tend to rise.

How the Outlook Has Shifted

The survey runs four times a year, which makes it a useful gauge of the panel's mood. A year ago, the experts expected home prices to grow 2.1% this year. Today, they forecast 2.5%. The near-term outlook has become a little more optimistic. The years beyond tell a softer story. For 2027 through 2029, the panel now expects slightly less growth than it did a year ago. Still, every year shows an increase. Only the pace has moderated.

Is a slower climb a bad thing? Not necessarily. It may simply be a market settling into a more natural cadence after a few remarkable years. A little more growth here, a little less there. What has not changed is the expectation that values will continue to rise.

What This Means for Your Next Chapter

Percentages are useful. Dollars are more personal. Consider a $400,000 home purchased in January. Under the panel's latest forecast, that home could add roughly $58,000 in equity over five years, from price appreciation alone. That is wealth quietly building in the background. It is part of the legacy a home can offer, long before it becomes a story you tell. And if prices keep rising, waiting may mean paying more for the same home down the road.

The Bottom Line

Whether you are bracing for a crash or hoping for one, the experts agree: prices are expected to rise, not fall. Every move is personal. Some are looking to rightsize. Some want a little more room by the water. Some are simply curious about timing. With more than $1 billion in career sales, a place among the Top 1% of Coldwell Banker teams nationally, and an average of 97.6% of list price achieved, we have learned that good decisions begin with good information. It is also why 65% of our business comes from repeat clients and referrals.

We are always happy to be a sounding board, whether you are ready now or simply thinking ahead.

The next chapter often begins with a conversation.